Mozambique 2026

In Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province, an Islamic State-affiliated insurgency (ISM) continues to fight nearly a decade after it first emerged, despite the deployment of Rwandan Defence Forces troops brought in to secure the region. The conflict has directly threatened TotalEnergies' $50 billion liquefied natural gas project, displaced more than one million people, and killed at least 6,527 people since 2017, according to ACLED.

Background

The insurgency in Cabo Delgado emerged in 2017, rooted in local grievances over poverty, unemployment and marginalization in one of Mozambique's poorest provinces despite its vast offshore natural gas reserves. The group, locally known as al-Shabaab (unrelated to the Somali organization of the same name), pledged allegiance to Islamic State around 2019 and became known as Islamic State Mozambique (ISM). Attacks escalated sharply through 2020 and 2021, culminating in the March 2021 assault on the town of Palma, which forced TotalEnergies to declare force majeure and suspend construction on its liquefied natural gas project.

In response, Rwanda deployed troops to Cabo Delgado in mid-2021, alongside a separate mission from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), helping government forces retake Palma and other key towns. Rwandan forces have remained in the province since, tasked in large part with securing the area around the TotalEnergies gas site.

Mozambique's post-independence history has already been marked by one devastating conflict: a 15-year civil war between the ruling Frelimo party and the Renamo rebel movement that lasted from 1977 to 1992 and left the country's infrastructure and institutions severely weakened. The Cabo Delgado insurgency is a distinct, jihadist-inspired conflict rather than a continuation of that earlier civil war, but it has emerged in a country that entered the 2010s gas boom with limited state capacity to manage the security and development challenges that came with it.

Current Situation (2026)

Despite years of Rwandan Defence Forces presence, ISM continues to carry out attacks in Cabo Delgado, and TotalEnergies' $50 billion LNG project — one of the largest single investments in Africa and a project with direct relevance to European energy security since the loss of Russian gas supplies — remains at risk and has not fully resumed construction. ACLED puts the death toll from the insurgency at 6,527 since 2017, and more than one million people remain displaced, many sheltering in overcrowded camps in Nampula and other neighboring provinces.

ICG CrisisWatch continues to flag the security situation in Cabo Delgado as unresolved, with ISM cells able to regroup and strike in areas outside the immediate perimeter secured by Rwandan and Mozambican forces. The stakes extend well beyond Mozambique's borders: European governments seeking to diversify away from Russian energy have a direct interest in the LNG project's completion, giving the insurgency an outsized geopolitical weight relative to its size.

For Mozambique itself — one of the poorest countries in the world by per-capita income — the delayed gas project represents a lost opportunity for state revenue that could otherwise fund basic services in a province that remains chronically underdeveloped. That gap between the promise of enormous offshore gas wealth and the lived reality of poverty and displacement in Cabo Delgado continues to feed the local grievances that originally helped the insurgency take root.

Regional Hotspots

• Cabo Delgado (ISM) CRITICAL
• Nampula Region HIGH
• Central Mozambique MEDIUM

Key Actors

Islamic State Mozambique (ISM)

A locally rooted insurgency that pledged allegiance to Islamic State around 2019. Continues to operate in Cabo Delgado despite years of counter-insurgency operations, exploiting rural terrain and local grievances to sustain recruitment.

Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF) & SADC Mission

Deployed since mid-2021 to help Mozambican forces retake territory and secure the area around the TotalEnergies gas site. Their continued presence has stabilized key towns without eliminating the insurgency.

TotalEnergies & International Energy Stakeholders

The French energy major's $50 billion LNG project remains directly exposed to the security situation in Cabo Delgado, a stake that has drawn European government interest given the project's relevance to energy security after the loss of Russian gas supplies.

Mozambican Government

Relies heavily on Rwandan and SADC forces to provide security in Cabo Delgado, and has staked significant political capital on the eventual resumption of the TotalEnergies project as a source of much-needed state revenue and development.

Humanitarian Impact

More than one million people have been displaced by the conflict in Cabo Delgado, many living in overcrowded camps in Nampula and other neighboring provinces with limited access to services. ACLED has recorded 6,527 deaths since the insurgency began in 2017, and continued ISM attacks keep large parts of the province unsafe for the return of displaced families or the resumption of normal economic activity. Host communities in Nampula and central Mozambique, themselves among the poorest in the country, have absorbed much of the displaced population with limited international support, straining local resources and, in some cases, fueling tension between displaced and host populations.

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