Sudan Civil War

The Sudan civil war began on April 15, 2023, as a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). It has since become one of the deadliest and most neglected conflicts in the world. Former US envoy to Sudan estimates up to 400,000 killed since the war began. Over 12 million people have been displaced — the world's largest displacement crisis. Famine has been confirmed in multiple regions. The Darfur massacre following the fall of El Fasher in October 2025 is described by researchers as the largest mass killing of the 21st century.

Background

Sudan gained independence in 1956 and has since experienced 20 coup attempts, prolonged military rule, and two civil wars. The current conflict grew out of the 2021 military coup, which ended a civilian-led democratic transition that followed the 2019 popular uprising against longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir.

The SAF and RSF had jointly orchestrated the 2021 coup. Tensions between the two forces escalated as negotiations over the integration of the RSF into the national army collapsed. The RSF, originally formed from the Janjaweed militias responsible for the Darfur genocide of the 2000s, had grown into a powerful autonomous force with significant gold mining revenues and foreign backing.

Current Situation (March 2026)

By early 2026, the conflict has produced a functional partition of Sudan. The SAF controls the east and — after retaking it in March 2025 — Khartoum, though the capital remains devastated after two years of occupation. The RSF controls most of western Sudan including Darfur. The Kordofan region in central Sudan is an active and intensifying battleground.

In October 2025, the RSF seized El Fasher, the last SAF stronghold in Darfur, after an 18-month siege. What followed has been described by the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab, using satellite imagery analysis, as a systematic campaign of mass killings — the RSF targeting civilians, concealing evidence through burial and burning of remains. Estimates of dead in El Fasher alone range from 30,000 to 60,000.

In early 2026, fighting shifted to the Kordofan region, where daily drone strikes by both sides are causing substantial civilian casualties, striking markets, hospitals, and residential areas. The SAF retook South Kordofan's capital Kadugli, but the RSF has intensified pressure on North Kordofan. Neither side appears capable of achieving outright military victory.

Chad shut its eastern border with Sudan indefinitely on February 23, 2026, citing repeated incursions and growing insecurity, further restricting humanitarian access to western Sudan.

Humanitarian Crisis

Sudan's humanitarian situation is described by the International Rescue Committee as the biggest humanitarian crisis ever recorded. Key indicators:

• Over 21 million people in severe acute food insecurity (IPC, late 2025)
• Famine confirmed in El Fasher (North Darfur) and Kadugli (South Kordofan)
• 4 million children acutely malnourished; 770,000 at imminent risk of death
• Majority of hospitals in conflict zones non-functional
• Cholera and measles outbreaks spreading through displacement camps
• Humanitarian aid routinely looted or blocked by both warring parties
• Over 20 million children out of school; higher education enrollment down 80%

Regional Hotspots

• Darfur — El Fasher CRITICAL — RSF control, mass atrocities
• Khartoum / Omdurman CRITICAL — devastated, SAF re-entering
• North Kordofan — El Obeid CRITICAL — daily drone strikes, 2026 frontline
• South Darfur / Kordofan HIGH — active fighting, famine zones
• Nile Region / East Sudan MEDIUM — displacement spillover, refugee pressure

Key Actors

SAF — Sudanese Armed Forces

Led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Holds international recognition as Sudan's legitimate government and a UN Security Council seat. Backed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Iran. Relies heavily on air power and has been accused of indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas.

RSF — Rapid Support Forces

Led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ("Hemedti"). Evolved from the Janjaweed militias responsible for the Darfur genocide. Financially independent through gold mining revenues. Heavily backed by the United Arab Emirates. Accused of systematic mass killings, sexual violence as a weapon of war, and ethnic cleansing of non-Arab communities in Darfur.

External actors

The UAE is widely assessed as the primary external backer of the RSF, supplying weapons and financing. Egypt, Turkey, and Iran back the SAF. Russian Wagner remnants (now Africa Corps) have supplied both sides through Central African Republic networks. Peace efforts by the US, African Union, and regional bodies have repeatedly failed — both sides and their backers have little incentive to end a conflict from which they profit through gold and resource extraction.

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