Somalia Conflict 2026

Al-Shabaab has controlled large swathes of southern and central Somalia for over a decade and continues to conduct attacks in Mogadishu and beyond. ACLED tracks the group as active across approximately 60% of southern Somalia. CFR's 2026 risk assessment highlights possible US security assistance withdrawal as a high-risk scenario that would dramatically expand al-Shabaab's territorial control and attack capacity. The African Union mission (ATMIS) is also drawing down.

Background

Somalia collapsed as a state in 1991 following the fall of dictator Siad Barre. Since then, it has experienced continuous civil conflict. Al-Shabaab emerged in the mid-2000s from the Islamic Courts Union and formally affiliated with al-Qaeda in 2012. It controls rural areas, collects taxes, and periodically makes advances on towns and cities.

International efforts to stabilize Somalia have been ongoing for decades. The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM, now ATMIS) has been present since 2007. The US has conducted drone strikes and provided security assistance.

Current Situation (March 2026)

Al-Shabaab controls significant rural territory, particularly in the Jubba Valley and Jubbaland region. The group conducts regular attacks on Mogadishu including suicide bombings, vehicle-borne explosives, and targeted assassinations of officials. The Somali National Army (SNA), backed by international support, has made some territorial gains but has been unable to decisively defeat al-Shabaab.

CFR's 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey identifies possible US security assistance withdrawal as a significant risk that would allow al-Shabaab to expand territorial control and conduct more sophisticated attacks. IS-Somalia operates separately in the Puntland mountains of northeastern Somalia.

Regional Hotspots

• South Somalia (al-Shabaab)CRITICAL — rural control, Jubba Valley
• Jubba ValleyCRITICAL — al-Shabaab stronghold
• MogadishuHIGH — regular bombings, assassinations
• Puntland (IS-Somalia)MEDIUM — IS attacks in north

Key Actors

Al-Shabaab

Al-Qaeda's largest affiliate globally by territory and operational capacity. Functions as a quasi-state in controlled areas. Taxes businesses, provides dispute resolution, and enforces strict sharia. Has conducted attacks in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia demonstrating regional reach.

Somali National Army (SNA)

The federal government's armed forces, significantly dependent on international training and support. Has conducted operations against al-Shabaab with partial success. Capacity remains limited.

African Union Mission (ATMIS)

Drawing down its presence per a phased exit plan. The security vacuum from ATMIS withdrawal combined with potential US drawdown represents the key 2026 risk scenario per CFR.