Somalia Conflict 2026

Al-Shabaab has controlled large swathes of southern and central Somalia for over a decade and continues to conduct attacks in Mogadishu and beyond. ACLED tracks the group as active across approximately 60% of southern Somalia. CFR's 2026 risk assessment highlights possible US security assistance withdrawal as a high-risk scenario that would dramatically expand al-Shabaab's territorial control and attack capacity. The African Union mission (ATMIS) is also drawing down.

Background

Somalia collapsed as a state in 1991 following the fall of dictator Siad Barre. Since then, it has experienced continuous civil conflict. Al-Shabaab emerged in the mid-2000s from the Islamic Courts Union and formally affiliated with al-Qaeda in 2012. It controls rural areas, collects taxes, and periodically makes advances on towns and cities.

International efforts to stabilize Somalia have been ongoing for decades. The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM, now ATMIS) has been present since 2007. The US has conducted drone strikes and provided security assistance.

Current Situation (April 2026)

On April 5, 2026, Somali intelligence reported killing nine al-Shabaab militants including explosives and logistics experts. In March 2026, the first mortar attack on the Halane UN compound since June 2025 occurred. Government forces seized Darulsaalam and Mubarak towns in Lower Shabelle (March 2), though the contested Hawadley town in Middle Shabelle was seized then lost again (March 11). Al-Shabaab conducts regular IEDs, suicide bombings, and shelling — currently generating the highest civilian casualty numbers of any armed group in the country.

A new strategic concern: increased al-Shabaab-Houthi cooperation in logistics and intelligence, with potential expansion to weapons acquisition and drone training (US intelligence assessments). IS-Somalia operates separately in Puntland. CFR identifies possible US security assistance withdrawal as a significant risk that would dramatically worsen the situation.

Regional Hotspots

• South Somalia (al-Shabaab)CRITICAL — rural control, Jubba Valley
• Jubba ValleyCRITICAL — al-Shabaab stronghold
• MogadishuHIGH — regular bombings, assassinations
• Puntland (IS-Somalia)MEDIUM — IS attacks in north

Key Actors

Al-Shabaab

Al-Qaeda's largest affiliate globally by territory and operational capacity. Functions as a quasi-state in controlled areas. Taxes businesses, provides dispute resolution, and enforces strict sharia. Has conducted attacks in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia demonstrating regional reach.

Somali National Army (SNA)

The federal government's armed forces, significantly dependent on international training and support. Has conducted operations against al-Shabaab with partial success. Capacity remains limited.

African Union Mission (ATMIS)

Drawing down its presence per a phased exit plan. The security vacuum from ATMIS withdrawal combined with potential US drawdown represents the key 2026 risk scenario per CFR.