Methodology
How conflicts are selected, classified, and visualized. All decisions are transparent and source-cited.
Conflict Selection
A country is included on the map when it meets at least one of the following criteria, confirmed by two or more independent sources:
- Active armed conflict with organized forces and sustained casualties (ACLED/UCDP definition)
- Listed as a significant conflict risk in CFR's Preventive Priorities Survey (Tier I or II)
- Flagged as a deteriorating or active conflict in ICG CrisisWatch for at least two consecutive months
- Generates significant humanitarian displacement per UN OCHA reporting
A country is removed when two or more sources confirm sustained cessation of organized violence for at least three months, and no imminent escalation risk is flagged.
Two-Tier Classification
Each conflict zone is classified as either an Active War or a Conflict Zone:
| Type | Criteria | Visual |
|---|---|---|
| Active War | Sustained armed conflict between organized forces with significant casualties. Includes interstate wars, civil wars, and high-intensity insurgencies where violence is widespread and ongoing. Generally corresponds to UCDP "war" threshold (1,000+ battle deaths/year) or equivalent ACLED severity. | Red marker, pulsing animation, red heatmap |
| Conflict Zone | Serious political violence, insurgency, or escalation risk below full-scale war threshold. Includes fragile ceasefires, localized insurgencies, CFR/ICG Tier I risk designations, and countries experiencing organized violence that may escalate. | Amber marker, static, no heatmap |
Heatmap Intensity Levels
Each active war zone contains between 3 and 7 regional hotspots, each assigned one of four intensity levels. These are based on ACLED event density, UN OCHA reporting, and ICG sub-national assessments.
Heatmap blob size and opacity scale with zoom level. On mobile, blobs are reduced to 45% of desktop size to avoid visual overload at the default zoom level.
WW3 Loading Bar
The "World War III Loading" bar was a satirical visualization, not a predictive model. It is calculated as a weighted score across all active war zone heatmap regions:
- Critical zones: weight 3
- High zones: weight 2
- Medium zones: weight 1
- Low zones: weight 0.5
The scale is deliberately calibrated so that the bar never reaches 100% — the maximum possible score (all zones at critical) equals 85%, leaving 15% "reserve" for a hypothetical genuine world war. It is intended to illustrate the aggregate scale of ongoing violence, not to make geopolitical predictions.
Data Sources
| Source | Primary use | URL |
|---|---|---|
| ACLED | Conflict rankings, casualty estimates, geographic diffusion, armed group counts | acleddata.com |
| ICG CrisisWatch | Monthly situation updates, escalation/de-escalation tracking | crisisgroup.org |
| CFR Global Conflict Tracker | Tier I/II risk classification, U.S. policy relevance weighting | cfr.org |
| UCDP Uppsala | Conflict categorization definitions, historical baseline | ucdp.uu.se |
| UN OCHA / ReliefWeb | Displacement statistics, humanitarian access, famine data | reliefweb.int |
| Wikipedia (cited sources) | Event-specific data where primary sources are cited within articles | wikipedia.org |
All casualty figures are treated as conservative estimates. Actual deaths in conflicts with limited media access — particularly Sudan, the Sahel, and DRC — are almost certainly higher than available data reflects.
Update Process
The conflict data lives in an external conflicts.json file, updated manually when source data warrants a change. Updates are triggered by:
- New ACLED Conflict Index or Watchlist releases (annual)
- ICG CrisisWatch monthly reports showing significant escalation or de-escalation
- Major conflict events (new interstate conflict, ceasefire, territorial shift)
- Significant changes to casualty estimates from primary sources
All changes are documented in the Changelog.
What this methodology does not cover
This map does not attempt to capture every armed conflict in the world — the ICRC estimates approximately 130. The selection focuses on the most significant by severity, scale, and geopolitical impact. Purely criminal violence without political organization, and low-level intercommunal clashes below sustained armed conflict threshold, are generally not included unless they meet the severity criteria above.
The map does not assign blame, make legal determinations about war crimes, or characterize the legitimacy of any armed party. Those determinations are the domain of international courts and investigative bodies, which are cited as sources where relevant.