Syria Conflict 2026

Bashar al-Assad's government fell in December 2024 after a rapid rebel offensive led by HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham). A transitional government under Ahmed al-Sharaa is attempting to establish control. However, Syria remains deeply unstable: ISIS cells are reactivating in the east, Turkey is conducting military operations against Kurdish SDF forces in the north, Israel continues airstrikes on military infrastructure, and armed groups are competing for control across the country.

Background

Syria's civil war began in 2011 when peaceful protests against Assad were met with violent suppression. The conflict escalated into a multi-sided war involving Assad's forces (backed by Russia and Iran), various rebel groups, ISIS (which declared a caliphate in 2014), Kurdish forces, and interventions by Turkey, the US, Israel, and others. An estimated 500,000 people died and 12 million were displaced over 13 years.

ISIS was largely defeated territorially by 2019 through a US-backed campaign led by Kurdish SDF forces. Assad retook most territory by 2020 with Russian and Iranian support. HTS, which controls Idlib province, launched a surprise offensive in late 2024 that rapidly swept through Aleppo, Hama, and Homs before reaching Damascus. Assad fled to Russia on December 8, 2024.

Current Situation (March 2026)

The transitional government under Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani) is attempting to consolidate control and begin reconstruction. However, multiple security challenges persist simultaneously. ISIS cells have reactivated particularly in Deir ez-Zor in eastern Syria, conducting ambushes and bombings. Turkey continues military operations in the north against Kurdish SDF forces, which Ankara designates as a terrorist organization. Israel has struck Syrian military infrastructure dozens of times since Assad's fall, targeting weapons caches and preventing their transfer to Hezbollah.

Regional Hotspots

• Deir ez-Zor (ISIS cells)CRITICAL — ISIS reactivation
• North Syria / Turkey borderHIGH — Turkish operations vs. SDF
• Aleppo regionHIGH — post-war instability
• Damascus surroundingsMEDIUM — transitional government establishing control

Key Actors

Transitional Government (HTS / al-Sharaa)

Ahmed al-Sharaa leads a transitional government that is attempting to unify Syria and rebuild institutions. HTS remains designated as a terrorist organization by the US, EU, and UN — creating complications for international recognition and aid. Al-Sharaa has signaled a more pragmatic, nationalist approach rather than strict jihadism.

ISIS Remnants

Islamic State cells continue operating particularly in the Syrian desert and Deir ez-Zor region, exploiting the security vacuum created by Assad's fall. CFR warns of significant risk of ISIS resurgence in 2026 if the transitional government fails to establish effective control.

Kurdish SDF / Turkey

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces control northeastern Syria. Turkey views the SDF as an extension of the PKK and conducts regular military operations. The SDF was instrumental in defeating ISIS and holds thousands of ISIS prisoners — whose fate is a major concern.