Sahel Insurgency

The Sahel — spanning Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — hosts Africa's worst jihadist insurgency. Two main groups operate here: JNIM (Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin), an al-Qaeda affiliate, and ISIS-Sahel (ISSP). Together they control vast rural territories and have pushed south into coastal West Africa. Burkina Faso alone recorded 17,775 deaths in three years. After French forces withdrew in 2022–23, Russian Wagner Group mercenaries entered — now rebranded as Africa Corps. Security has worsened dramatically since the French departure.

Background

The Sahel crisis has roots in the collapse of Libya after Gaddafi's fall in 2011, which flooded the region with weapons, and the 2012 coup in Mali that created a power vacuum exploited by Tuareg separatists and jihadist groups. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and later JNIM expanded rapidly. The conflict spread from Mali into Burkina Faso (2015) and Niger (2017).

France deployed Operation Barkhane in 2014 to counter the insurgency. Despite years of operations, the insurgency continued to grow. Military coups in Mali (2021), Burkina Faso (2022), and Niger (2023) brought anti-French juntas to power who expelled French forces and invited Russian Wagner mercenaries.

Current Situation (March 2026)

Security has dramatically worsened since the French withdrawal. JNIM blockaded Bamako, Mali's capital, in 2025 — cutting supply routes and demonstrating the insurgency's reach. Burkina Faso's junta controls only an estimated 40% of its territory. Russia's Africa Corps (successor to Wagner after Prigozhin's death) is present in Mali and Niger but has not reversed the security trend.

JNIM has expanded southward into Benin, Togo, Ivory Coast, and Ghana — representing a new phase of southward expansion described by ACLED as deliberate rather than spillover.

Regional Hotspots

• Central Mali (JNIM)CRITICAL — insurgent control, Bamako blockade
• Burkina Faso (JNIM/ISSP)CRITICAL — 60%+ territory outside government control
• Niger / TillaberiCRITICAL — triple border with Mali/Burkina
• South Mali / Guinea borderHIGH — southward expansion
• Northern Benin / TogoHIGH — JNIM expansion zone

Key Actors

JNIM (al-Qaeda affiliate)

Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin is the dominant insurgent force across the Sahel. It operates governance structures in controlled areas, collects taxes, and enforces sharia. It has expanded south into coastal West Africa as part of a stated strategic goal of reaching the Atlantic coast.

ISIS-Sahel (ISSP)

A rival jihadist force operating primarily in the tri-border area of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Competes with JNIM but also fights it. Known for mass atrocities against civilians. Has expanded to northern Nigeria.

Sahel Juntas + Russia Africa Corps

Military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger expelled French and UN forces. Russia's Africa Corps has taken up presence but security outcomes have worsened. The juntas claim sovereignty while losing territory to insurgents daily.