Ethiopia Conflict 2026

Ethiopia's 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner Abiy Ahmed now presides over multiple simultaneous armed conflicts. Amhara Fano militias have been fighting the federal government since 2023 across Amhara region. The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) remains active in Oromia. In September 2025, Abiy threatened war against Eritrea over access to the sea — a scenario ICG warns could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. The Tigray ceasefire of November 2022 is fragile.

Background

Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018 and initiated historic peace with Eritrea (winning the Nobel Prize). But his centralization policies alienated ethnic regional parties. In November 2020, war broke out in Tigray between federal forces and the TPLF (Tigray People's Liberation Front). The war killed an estimated 300,000–500,000 people — one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century. A ceasefire was reached in November 2022.

The Amhara crisis erupted in 2023 when the federal government attempted to disarm regional Amhara forces (the "Fano" militia). Amhara communities, who had fought alongside federal forces in Tigray, resisted disarmament. Full-scale fighting erupted and continues.

Current Situation (March 2026)

Amhara Fano militias are fighting government forces across 30+ woredas in 9 zones of Amhara region. The federal government has deployed significant military force. The OLA remains active in Oromia. In September 2025, PM Abiy publicly threatened war against Eritrea if it did not provide sea access — a statement ICG assessed as potentially triggering a new Ethiopia-Eritrea war that could destabilize the entire Horn region including Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan's neighbors.

Regional Hotspots

• Amhara Region (Fano)CRITICAL — federal vs. militia war
• Oromia (OLA)HIGH — ongoing Oromo insurgency
• Tigray / Eritrea borderHIGH — fragile ceasefire, war threat
• Ogaden / Somalia borderMEDIUM — spillover risk

Key Actors

Federal Government (Abiy Ahmed)

Pursuing military solutions to multiple insurgencies simultaneously. Abiy's Prosperity Party has centralized power, alienating ethnic federalist forces. Military operations in Amhara have included airstrikes on civilian areas.

Amhara Fano Militias

Armed civilian groups from Amhara ethnic group resisting federal disarmament. Fought alongside the government in Tigray war, now fighting against it. Control significant rural territory in Amhara region.

OLA (Oromo Liberation Army)

Armed wing of the Oromo Liberation Front. Active in Oromia, Ethiopia's largest region. Has been negotiating with the government intermittently without durable ceasefire.