Myanmar Civil War

Myanmar's civil war began after the military (Tatmadaw) seized power on February 1, 2021, detaining elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi. What followed is ACLED's most fragmented conflict in the world — over 1,200 armed groups fighting the junta. By 2024, resistance forces controlled 42% of Myanmar's territory while the junta retained only 21%. In 2025, ACLED estimated over 15,000 conflict-related deaths. Nearly 5.2 million people are displaced. A devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake in March 2025 compounded an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

Background

Myanmar's civil conflict has roots stretching back to independence in 1948, when ethnic minorities took up arms against a Burman-dominated central government. Decades of military rule followed a 1962 coup. A democratic transition began in 2011 and culminated in Aung San Suu Kyi's landslide election victory in 2020 — which the military voided, claiming fraud, before seizing power on February 1, 2021.

The coup triggered mass civil disobedience and, after the military responded with lethal force against protesters, an armed resistance movement. Ousted civilian leaders formed the National Unity Government (NUG) as a parallel government. Local People's Defense Forces (PDFs) formed across the country. Long-standing ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) — some fighting for decades — aligned with the resistance.

Current Situation (March 2026)

The junta's position has dramatically weakened since Operation 1027 in late 2023, when a coordinated offensive by resistance forces captured significant territory. By 2024, resistance forces and ethnic armies controlled an estimated 42% of Myanmar's territory versus 21% for the junta (BBC investigation). The junta retains control of major urban areas and deploys superior air power.

In January 2026, the junta held sham elections across 263 of 330 townships — confined to areas it controlled, excluding conflict zones, displaced populations, and the Rohingya. The main opposition NLD was barred from participating. The UN described the vote as failing to respect fundamental human rights and serving only to exacerbate polarization.

A 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar on March 28, 2025, killing over 5,000 people and affecting 17 million. Despite announcing a temporary ceasefire, the junta reportedly carried out more than 550 attacks in the two months following the earthquake, blocking aid in opposition-held areas.

Regional Hotspots

• Shan State / NortheastCRITICAL — major resistance gains
• Chin State / NorthwestCRITICAL — resistance control
• Kayah / Karen StateHIGH — active front lines
• Sagaing RegionHIGH — PDF operations, junta airstrikes
• Yangon surroundingsMEDIUM — urban junta control, peripheral conflict
• Rakhine StateMEDIUM — Arakan Army control, Rohingya abuses

Key Actors

Military Junta (SAC / Tatmadaw)

Led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who faces an ICC arrest warrant request for crimes against humanity against the Rohingya (filed November 2024). The junta controls major cities and deploys air power against civilian areas, hospitals, and schools. The ICC and multiple courts have documented atrocities amounting to war crimes and crimes against humanity.

National Unity Government (NUG) & PDFs

The NUG functions as a parallel civilian government recognized by 93% of surveyed Myanmar citizens (2024). Its armed wing, the People's Defense Forces, has grown from 65,000 fighters in 2022 to 85,000 by 2024. Coordinates with ethnic armed organizations across most of the country.

Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs)

Over 20 significant ethnic armies operate in Myanmar. Key groups allied with the NUG include the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Karen National Union (KNU), and Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). The Arakan Army controls most of Rakhine State and operates independently. China has brokered multiple fragile ceasefires to protect its economic interests in Myanmar.

Humanitarian Crisis

Nearly 5.2 million people are displaced — both internally and across borders into Thailand, India, and Bangladesh. One-third of Myanmar's population requires humanitarian assistance. The UN's 2025 humanitarian appeal for Myanmar sought $1.1 billion but has been significantly underfunded. Myanmar has become the world's top producer of opium and a major source of synthetic drugs, with criminal economies proliferating amid state collapse.

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